Sanghnomics: China looks to India for help as trade tensions between the US and China increase. India is still wary, though, because of previous security and economic worries. Experts contend that despite taking advantage of trade opportunities brought about by the tariff war, India should prioritise its relations with the US.
Tensions between the US and China have increased since US President Donald Trump decided to quadruple tariffs on Chinese goods. Chinese officials have made two intriguing remarks amid this squabbling.
“If war is what the US wants—be it a trade war, a tariff war, or any other type of war—we’re ready to fight till the end,” the Chinese embassy in Washington wrote on X.
A few days later, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi urged Beijing and New Delhi to work together more closely in order to combat “hegemonism and power politics.” Numerous media agencies cited his statement that the Elephant (India) and the Dragon (China) ought to “dance together.”
China must acknowledge, though, that India should no longer be viewed as a “elephant.” India has changed over the past 10 years, becoming a “tiger” that can use challenges to its advantage on the international scene.
It is obvious that China is presently in a critical situation and is looking to India for assistance in fending off the US economic assault on its country. Whether the tiger and the dragon should, in fact, “dance together,” as China proposes, is the key question.
The Reasons India Is Not Likely to Join China
Both pragmatically and ideologically, such a situation is unlikely.
The stance taken by the Swadeshi Jagaran Manch (SJM), an entity that draws inspiration from the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), the ideological forerunner of the current Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), is representative from an ideological perspective. The Indian government’s swadeshi (self-reliance) mentality is frequently reflected in SJM’s position.
The SJM’s national co-convenor, Dr. Ashwani Mahajan, is adamant that India will benefit from the trade war between the US and China. “India can benefit from the United States’ restrictions on Chinese imports by providing affordable, dependable, high-quality substitutes,” he says.
SJM has continuously spearheaded anti-cheap Chinese import campaigns in India, which have had a negative effect on home industries. It has been a strong supporter of the boycott of Chinese products. Numerous sectors that were in danger of collapsing because of Chinese dumping have been brought back to life by the Narendra Modi government through the Make in India campaign and limitations on Chinese imports. Several Chinese apps and organisations have been prohibited from functioning in India due to security concerns. There is no change in the belief that China poses a security danger. Given that the dragon is still unreliable and a danger to national security, how can the tiger and the dragon dance together?
Leading Chinese affairs specialist Dr. Sriparna Pathak offers more analysis on the current state of things, saying that “China’s stance is merely a façade.” They wouldn’t flood the Indian market with their products and place both tariff and non-tariff hurdles on Indian exports if they were truly serious about working together. Although many people are aware of China’s tariff barriers, Indian exports are severely hampered by its exceptionally high non-tariff obstacles as well.
China hasn’t done anything to change this thus far. Nevertheless, it has the gall to ask India for assistance in resisting economic demands from the US.\Dr. Pathak claims that although India’s trade balance with the US is still in surplus, its trade deficit with China has been steadily growing. Therefore, rather of siding with China, India would be better off fortifying its relations with the United States. She continues, “China cannot be trusted.”
History has repeatedly demonstrated that China always looks to India for support when it is experiencing economic difficulties, with no reciprocal advantages. China is still undermining India’s interests geopolitically, and now that it is feeling the heat from US trade policies, it is trying to involve India in its conflict.
Dr. Pathak warns that India should prioritise protecting its own interests rather than being entangled in the conflict between the US and China. She also draws attention to the fact that the US-China tariff battle is more than just an economic conflict. Given China’s growing competitiveness with the US on several fronts, the US is focussing on China as part of a larger global strategy.
The “New Great Game”
Many commentators call this geopolitical conflict the “New Great Game,” comparing it to “The Great Game,” which was the strategic rivalry between Britain and Russia for Central Asia that lasted for three hundred years. The US and the Soviet Union engaged in a comparable rivalry following World War II. China and the US have been engaged in this New Great Game since the fall of the Soviet Union in the late 1980s. Trump’s hostile posture towards China is largely the result of this continuous competition.
India’s Future Direction
Dr. Mahajan is of the opinion that negotiations can resolve Trump’s reciprocal tariff measures against India. In the upcoming months, he anticipates that India and the US may reach a bilateral deal. Such talks are already in progress, according to the Modi administration.
It’s interesting that Dr. Mahajan offers a practical response to Trump’s demands that India reduce tariffs. “Reducing tariffs might not be a big deal for pricey or luxury goods.” After all, how many Indians will purchase a Tesla or a Harley-Davidson? These are luxury goods having a specialised market that don’t compete with the large employment-generating Indian industries.
This tactic might be a useful means of satisfying US demands without jeopardising India’s financial interests. India should concentrate on taking advantage of the new trade opportunities that the US-China trade war has created in the US market at the same time.
