An underrated and frequently ignored aspect of the United States and China’s ongoing conflict is their hostile struggle in quantum technology.
The development of quantum technology is still in its infancy. It offers computational efficiency and capacities well beyond even the most sophisticated supercomputers available today by utilizing the incredible computing power of subatomic particles. Wide-ranging effects would result from this in both military and civilian use cases, including financial services, cybersecurity, life sciences, space exploration, and defense. The first country to make a breakthrough in the subject may be able to change the global power structure and security, tipping the scales in their favor. The race’s stakes are rising as a result.
There are four ways to see this rivalry.
The first is the decoupling of publications and scientific collaboration between the two countries. The US and China generated twice as many highly referenced papers between 2011 and 2020, but after 2022, China has taken the lead in research publications on quantum technologies.
In stark contrast to previous years, this change has also been characterized by a substantial drop in collaborative publications and cross-border research between China and Western countries. Actually, before returning to China, Pan Jianwei, a key player in China’s quantum mission, received his doctorate from the University of Vienna under the guidance of Nobel winner Anton Zeilinger.
Second, there are differences in the quantum technology specializations of the US and China. China is at the forefront of quantum communications, while the United States is at the forefront of quantum computers.
The disparity in the R&D ecosystems in the two nations is shown in this. The quantum program in China is driven by a long-term, expansionist state perspective. This makes it possible to carry out infrastructure megaprojects in a coordinated and centralized manner, such as the 12,000-kilometer communication network that includes satellite and ground-based fiber optic cables. In the US, however, industry and private money are more important.
Thirdly, the United States has imposed a number of limitations on quantum exports and investments to Chinese quantum research labs and other organizations throughout the past 12 months. Error correction software and algorithms that are crucial to stabilizing quantum operations, dilution refrigerators required for manipulating subatomic particles at low temperatures, and quantum computers and their fundamental components are all critical objects impacted by these controls.
Furthermore, US corporations are required by the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) to reveal information about foreign nationals employed in quantum technology who come from “sensitive” nations.
Last but not least, disagreements over technical standards are growing between the two countries. For example, when a Chinese delegate chaired the current working group on quantum standards, the Biden administration advocated for the creation of a new joint technical committee. The concerns are not entirely unjustified, even though this is uncommon for the US, where standards are often left to an open, bottom-up, industry-led due process. China released a national technical standards plan in 2021 that included a section devoted to vital emerging technologies and emphasized the importance of “building a modern socialist country” as well as the necessity of “active participation in international standardization activities.”
Comparable to the Cold War-era competition that produced advances in space technology, nuclear capabilities, and sophisticated missile systems and set the stage for numerous civilian use cases, including the internet, is the current trajectory of technological competition across a wide range of sectors, including artificial intelligence, quantum computing, telecommunications, and renewable energy.
In the immediate term, isolated and redundant efforts are expected to be the result of the waning research collaboration in quantum technology. There are still a lot of technical issues that need to be resolved, including scalability, hardware development, qubit incoherence, and error correction. Additionally, the broader geopolitical impact on the technology is a source of frustration. The conflict over technical standards is a reflection of a bigger problem: vested interests rather than merits or even a thorough comprehension of the underlying technology are likely to influence decisions.
The most important long-term result of this geopolitical competition for quantum technology may be the rapid advancements achieved in a short period of time. Chinese researchers reported breaking military-grade encryption in an experimental proof-of-concept quantum study in October 2024. In anticipation of which data is being stolen worldwide for a “harvest now, decrypt later” tactic, the “Q-day,” or the day when quantum capabilities could make present encryption techniques useless, is probably closer than previously thought. To address this, post-quantum secure communications and quantum-resistant cryptography are desperately needed.
